In Nigeria today, rankings hold symbolic power, but their practical relevance is weakening under pressure from reality.
By Testimony Akinkunmi
In October 2025, Nigeria’s latest university ranking was released, once again elevating institutions based on global metrics like research output, citations, and international partnerships. The press heralded it as a definitive measure of “best” universities. But many families are asking a quieter question: which school will actually help my child secure a job?
When parents tell children to aim only for “top” universities, they often implicitly use the basis of global or national rankings—Times Higher Education (THE), Webometrics, NUC, etc. Yet, many parents and students rarely use these rankings in practice. A 2020 survey at the University of Lagos, however, found that students considered a university reputation or ranking to be an influential factor in their choice. But even that reputation, while enhancing external perception, does not necessarily guarantee better support or career outcomes.
Global or national rankings tend to reward metrics such as research output, citations, international collaboration, faculty credentials, and reputation surveys. But many of these are inputs, not outcomes. As fees rise, academic calendars are interrupted, and job markets remain unforgiving, more families, when writing big checks, tend to care more about outputs: graduate employability, career advancement, and student support.
Instead, the real signal of what students and families want often lies in where students apply, the volume of JAMB university applications, and the popularity of certain institutions or courses.
JAMB Applications: A More Grounded Indicator of Preference
Let’s start with what the data tells us. In Nigeria, the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) collects data on how many candidates apply (and to which institutions) each year. This data offers a raw, revealed measure of preference: where students want to go, under competing constraints.
- In 2018, for example, JAMB recorded 1,653,127 total applications, though only 549,763 candidates were admitted across institutions.
- More recently, LASU overtook UNILORIN in first-choice application share, signaling shifts in perceived value among students.
- Other analyses (such as for FUTO) model the yearly number of JAMB applicants and show that these application counts follow meaningful trends, not random fluctuations.
These numbers reflect more than prestige: they reflect students’ constraints, ambitions, and beliefs about which institutions offer real opportunity. Additionally, the UTME (JAMB’s entrance exam) performance distribution constrains choice. In 2025, 1.5 million candidates (roughly 78%) scored below 200 out of 400. Only 0.63% scored 300 or more. That means a huge majority of prospective students cannot even vie for top-tier, highly competitive institutions, regardless of how well-ranked those are.
Who then is the ranking for?
The Costs
Few Prestigious universities are known not to be the affordable choice. And the prestigious federal universities are now getting more expensive. Parents are facing significantly higher costs than they may realise.
- Though federal universities are statutorily “tuition-free” (meaning no standard tuition fee), in 2025, students are commonly paying between ₦95,000 and ₦230,000 per session in other mandatory fees: registration, ICT services, laboratory, library, student ID, and development levies.
- For example, new students in science-related departments at the University of Abuja now pay ₦227,500 in total fees under these charges.
- Private universities are much more expensive. Depending on the institution and program of study, fees can range from roughly ₦300,000 to over ₦2,000,000 per session.
The cost-benefit of choosing a “prestigious” university may shrink rapidly once all hidden or extra charges are factored in. Parents may be paying high costs anyway, but for prestige rather than concrete services or outcomes.
The prestige-driven paradigm of higher education, which long favoured top-ranked incumbents, is facing a growing international challenge as exemplified by a recent account in The Atlantic. A student who initially viewed his 2023 acceptance to Columbia University as a “lottery win” quickly found the reality of a highly competitive, resource-constrained environment—facing impractically long waitlists for desired classes, barred access to undergraduate research with a sought-after professor, a demanding core curriculum, and intense club competition, less fulfilling than the brand name promised.
Recognising that his desire for close faculty interaction and strong peer relationships was being overshadowed by the constant struggle for the “next thing”, he made the significant decision to transfer to the University of Minnesota, a school ranked roughly 40 spots lower.
Strikingly, he reports finding the coursework equally challenging, gaining coveted access to a research lab, enjoying a more welcoming peer environment, and simultaneously seeing his tuition cut in half. This suggests that a growing number of students are prioritising a quality, accessible, and engaging undergraduate experience over the mere cachet of a highly selective institution perpetuated by ranking.
This American experience mirrors the Nigerian shift in priority: the tangible value of a well-supported, timely academic journey often outweighs the abstract ‘prestige’ that rankings confer.
What Parents Actually Weigh?
First, while specific data on Nigerian parental influence can be hard to acquire, available research consistently indicates that parents play a crucial role in their children’s educational trajectory, significantly impacting their career choice and the institution they ultimately attend.
For both students and parents, a university’s value is now defined by its return on investment in the job market, not its historic reputation. A strong degree must now be backed by academics taught by respected, market-relevant professors and complemented by effective career services that deliver job placement and work-study programmes.
When prestige becomes disconnected from these tangible career outcomes, it ceases to function as the protective buffer or guaranteed social signal that parents once relied upon. The calculus for university choice has shifted: the quantifiable ability to launch a career is now the defining measure of institutional worth.
The former titan, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), serves as a cautionary example of this new calculus. Once fiercely competitive, OAU’s applicant numbers have fallen sharply from nearly 80,000 in 2013 to approximately 44,000 first-choice applicants in 2024.
This decline is largely attributed to the operational realities of the public university system, where frequent, protracted academic strikes create significant instability and long delays in graduation. For modern Nigerian families, this unpredictability is a critical liability; they prioritise the security of a swift, timely entry into the workforce over a prestigious but disrupted academic experience.
They are now conducting their own research, prioritising institutions whose alumni dominate industry leadership and whose career services are demonstrably strong in job placement, a truer measure of return on investment (ROI) than any global ranking. The new metric of institutional success is no longer historical reputation, but the measurable return on investment in a student’s career.
In Nigeria today, rankings hold symbolic power, but their practical relevance is weakening under pressure from reality. Most families don’t live by metrics like citation count or survey scores; they live by application trends and job outcomes. JAMB application volumes offer a more grounded reflection of perception and possibility than abstract ranking positions.
Undoubtedly, global rankings will continue to carry weight among elites, international observers, and for research funding. But for parents spending real money (and sometimes taking big financial sacrifices), those rankings matter less than whether their child emerges employable, supported, and able to begin work or further study with confidence.
For parents and students, the smarter move is to start with what is feasible, what delivers outcomes, and treat prestige as a bonus. If a university with a good name can’t back it with graduate success, meaningful support, and real ability to absorb its students, then prestige alone won’t carry its weight.
Ultimately, in Nigeria’s current setting, the more “prestige-oriented” institution is only valuable if it delivers local value. And increasingly, parents are insisting on proof of that value, not just reputation.
Testimony Akinkunmi is a recent law graduate from the University of Abuja, passionate about finance, education, and law. He can be reached at testimony.akinkunmi@gmail.com.